Oops, Our Bad…

Real science — by definition — is open to continuing reinterpretations as more data become available, often leading to adjustments of accepted models.

An excellent example of this unavoidable truism was the basis of an article in the New York Times (4 March 2026) titled “Sea Levels Are Already Higher Than Many Scientists Think, New Study Shows”. The article summarizes a peer-reviewed study in Nature Magazine that details the differences between what was predicted nearly twenty years ago for rising sea levels due to climate change, and what is actually being observed and measured today.

(A quick definition: “Peer-reviewed” means that the study has been evaluated by respected, but not necessarily like-minded — or even supportive — scientists. This is ALWAYS a good check for scientific bias, and an indicator of the validity of the analysis.)

While some may (and certainly will) use this discrepancy between what was predicted and what is being measured as iron-clad proof that all science is flawed and should be ignored (especially when inconvenient), this is simply how science works, and is to be expected. Indeed, it’s the science that is never reviewed or changes that becomes dogma, and is therefore open to adverse speculation and derision. (Click here for a discussion of the Scientific Method from my educational website, and how blind adherence to dogma can be problematic.)

The short version (of the short version) is fairly straightforward, but no less alarming for its brevity: Sea levels have risen (and continue to rise) faster than what has been assumed for the past couple decades. While those living in the most critical areas have been ringing this bell for years, we now have hard, measurable (and reproducible) data to support their hysteria. (Click here for an earlier post regarding sea level rise.)

A few quotes from the Times summary might be illustrative (read the full Times article for their complete summary of the original study in Nature):

New research has found that scientists studying sea-level rise have been using methods that underestimate how high the water already is. One result is that hundreds of millions more people worldwide are already living dangerously close to the rising ocean than Western scientists had previously estimated.

The new study, published Wednesday [4 March 2026] in the journal Nature, has found that the vast majority of scientific studies have made this mistake. Coastal sea levels are, on average, eight inches to a foot higher than many maps and models of the world’s coastlines indicate, the research found.

The Times summary includes two maps from the original study that help illustrate the authors’ analysis (the exhaustive study on Nature’s website also includes several additional graphics to support their findings). The Times maps have the title “Coastal Elevation Mismatch,” and attempt to use colors to indicate the difference between predicted sea level and actual measurements today. The legend below the maps credits the source of the data:

Note: Map reflects the gap between assumed sea levels based on Earth Gravitational Model 2008 and most recent direct sea-level measurements. Source: Seeger and Minderhoud (Nature, 2026)

Darkening shades of blue indicate areas where the discrepancy between actual sea level and that predicted from the 2008 model is lower, while yellow to orange indicate those coastlines where the variation in sea level is higher than predicted.

The first map details the western hemisphere, including North and South America:

As you can see, there is very little blue! No surprise. What I do find surprising is that the rise in sea level along the east coast of North America essentially mirrors what was predicted from the 2008 data. I leave it to you to come up with a reason, although several factors certainly come to my cynical mind…

The authors take great pains to point out the variations in sea level as it is expressed at different parts of the globe (the bolding is mine):

The discrepancies are much bigger in certain regions, like Southeast Asia and Pacific nations, where ocean dynamics are more complex. There, coastal sea levels are up to several meters higher than commonly estimated.

To illustrate their observation, the second map — in this case the eastern hemisphere — is probably even more alarming:

I find it interesting that most of the blue (signifying a lower than expected discrepancy in sea levels) are clustered along the shorelines of Antarctica and Greenland — the locations of the two major continental ice sheets (click this link for an earlier post titled Glaciers: Ice with an Attitude, here for an index to earlier posts related to glaciation, or here for some of my thoughts on sea level rise).

Could this have something to do with the expected localized increase in water due to the melting ice? Maybe these areas don’t exhibit such an alarming discrepancy because scientists have always expected these areas to show a greater rise. Sure sounds likely to me.

Whatever, this is no small thing, especially for those peoples and cultures in Asia:

However, from a global perspective, the findings indicate that hundreds of millions more people — particularly in Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, the Maldives and other Southeast Asian and Pacific nations — are living closer to sea level than widely assumed by Western experts and policymakers.

But hey: none of these are Americans and we don’t want them here anyway, so who cares? Right?

The authors are pretty sure they have determined what led to the mismatch (a.k.a. miscalculation) of actual sea level around the globe:

The study checked 385 other peer-reviewed papers and found that less than 1 percent had correctly assessed where sea levels are today. The problem starts with a decades-old method that compares satellite-based measurements of land elevation to something scientists know as a “geoid model,” which is a technique for estimating average sea level based on Earth’s gravitational field.

This method was once considered “state-of-the-art” and commonly taught in graduate school, said Philip Minderhoud, the senior author of the paper and an associate professor who studies land subsidence and sea level rise at Wageningen University & Research and Deltares, a scientific institute in the Netherlands.

However, other satellites and instruments can measure real sea level and reveal local differences from factors like currents, winds and tides, which can also influence sea levels but are not included in the gravitational-field model. Scientists can most accurately estimate sea level when both pieces of the puzzle are combined correctly.

As I mentioned at the top, I have little doubt that — given the time and an increasing need for distractions — there will be a vocal hue and cry about this, with many using the “mistake” to discount all science that they don’t happen to like.

Now, a week later when I have finally found the time to post this, the attacks on science and scientists have already begun. They are partially hidden, for the moment, behind the myriad distractions taking place in Iran and elsewhere, but the snarky comments and assaults are there if one chooses to look. Color me not surprised.

Sorry MAGA, but this is how science is supposed to work. Fortunately for them, many, if not most, of the rank-and-file MAGA supporters probably can’t afford to live at the beach anyway…