It’s The Climate

Grants Pass city motto above 6th Street

Susie and I have lived in and near Grants Pass in southwestern Oregon since the 1970s. One of the first things that caught our eye when we blew into town was the huge sign spanning 6th Street proclaiming the city’s motto: “It’s The Climate”. Rumor has it that the slogan was prompted by an effort to lure immigrants from Minnesota who were fed up with the nasty weather they were forced to endure, winter after winter.

Well, those who didn’t make the journey west to the Banana Belt are certainly getting nailed this holiday season. There’s no need to repeat the gory details (they are all over the news, no matter which channel or talking head you chose to watch), but a couple points may be in order:

The northern hemisphere westerly polar jet

Storm systems, thanks to the westerly jet stream, move eastward from the Pacific across the American heartland. The short version is easy: whatever weather we get here in Oregon is gonna show up in the Midwest (and then the east coast) within a very short time — usually a week or so, but that depends on several variables that we may or may not cover in a later post.

Take This Seriously — wind chill can cost you fingers and toes if you aren’t careful!

One important consideration we will cover now is the wind chill factor. It’s a very specific and predictable effect: the harder the wind is blowing, the colder it feels (and the greater the risk of frostbite for any who are stuck outside without protection). Couple this with a strong westerly polar jet, and it can get real cold — and real dangerous — real fast.

The current pattern (mid- to late-December, 2022) is a great example of how all of the above works to affect the country. Last week was bitter cold here in SW Oregon (at least compared to what we can usually expect — remember: It’s The Climate), but the high-pressure system that was parked over the Pacific Northwest has moved out and now we are warm and wet, with birds singing in every tree.

Wind chill forecast for the upper Midwest, December 21, 2022 — Merry Christmas!

What happened to the cold? Well, it froze out Charlie and Lindsey in Colorado a couple days ago, dropped the temps at her parent’s place in Chicago yesterday (nearly a 70F° drop in 24 hours), and is currently burying Buffalo (again) with feet of “lake effect” snow (click here for a previous post explaining this inevitable phenomena).

Hoaks Restaurant being devoured by lake effect ice in Hamburg, New York (just south of Buffalo) on 24 December 2022

Oh yeah! Add together the jet stream, bitter cold, and near-hurricane force winds, and a real mess can develop!

The forecast wind chill as a result of the jet stream pulling a frigid polar vortex over the upper Midwest

Next stop? My sister in the DC Metro area, and then across the Atlantic to bring joy and some belated holiday cheer to Europe. (GeoMan’s prediction: Look for some bitter cold in Ukraine by early-January. Those poor people are surely getting the rough end of the pineapple, but I’ll leave it at that: this is supposed to be a science blog and negative political discourse may not be appropriate.)

Anyway, if you are stuck in this mess be sure to bundle up, stay out of the wind, and look ahead with longing to the spring thaw.

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8 Responses

  1. Red Shannon says:

    Thoroughly enjoyed your guided meteorological tour of that frigid air mass as it marched across North America. A bit reminiscent of the great Leon Hunsaker, the local TV weather guy who always took the time to educate. Thanks, GeoMan.

  2. GeoMan says:

    Update 26 December, 2022: Buffalo New York took a real hit in what they are calling the worst storm in forty-five years. Along with the lake effect snow (with drifts up to eight feet that stranded the rescuers and led to nearly twenty fatalities), there was a massive “lake effect ice storm” — see the updated image, above, of Hoaks Restaurant in Hamburg, just a couple miles southwest and obviously on the lee shore of Lake Erie.

  3. Linda Weatbrook says:

    The weather certainly made for a very different and often sad Christmas for many here in the USA. We in AZ were blessed with a 70 degree Christmas Day. We count our blessings here. Next blessing, the Pacific NW storms will bring us two days of much needed and very welcome rain starting on Wednesday. Now we just need to see a large amount of snow fall in the rockies and our AZ mountains….fingers crossed.

    • GeoMan says:

      Possibly cross your toes (and eyes) as well?

      • GeoMan says:

        Linda: It’s Thursday and our power just came back on after 48 hours out. Oh yeah! the storm certainly hit us here in southern Oregon! Big winds (hence the power issue) and 3+” of rain. Looks like the storm door is open, as the venerable Leon Hunsaker (see comment above) used to say — we have rain in the forecast for the next two weeks. Hope you get what you need in AZ.

  4. Red Shannon says:

    I’m new here, and while perusing your Earthquake section was curious if you are familiar with Dutchsinse, a somewhat controversial earthquake predictor (https://www.dutchsinse.com/)?

    • GeoMan says:

      Woke to our power back and could finally get back online. Sorry, have not heard of this. I’ll check it out.