Earthquakes: Prediction and Control
As discussed in a couple earlier posts (Intro to Quakes and the Richter Scale), earthquakes are gonna continue to rattle our teeth and level our cities, and there’s not a hell of a lot we can do about it.
I guess the good news is that most (but definitely not all) earthquakes are concentrated in specific and clearly defined “seismically active” portions of the globe — there is a greater chance of getting knocked on your tush along the Pacific Ring of Fire, for example, than in the backs and beyonds of Kansas. So it should be easy: if you don’t like to dance, pack up your boogie shoes and go live somewhere else.
But the build-up happens so slowly, and we tend to get lulled into complacency or denial.
Or both.
The bad news — beyond the complacency and denial — is that we are a prodigious species that likes to live near the beach. As such there are a great many of us in harm’s way, and often in immense urban concentrations: countless millions of overcrowded consumers, all living blissfully ignorant above active plate boundaries.
Not a happy combination.
And the truly unfortunate news is that earthquakes are surely beyond our ability to predict or control.
Progress, at least with the prediction part, is creeping forward — seemingly slower than the plates themselves — but there is no method on the horizon that promises any reliable level of confidence that we can stake our lives upon.
There have been a few notable successes —China in 1975, for example — but the overwhelming majority of temblors are completely missed, at least in advance — China in 1976, for example. Possibly the needed hypothetical breakthrough will be like a quake itself: sudden, and without warning. One can only hope…
And control? Harnessing and/or corralling plate tectonics seems equally elusive, if not essentially impossible. This is obviously of concern from a technical standpoint: these are some titanic forces that never let up — we’d be like fleas trying to steer the elephant. And it seems equally unlikely on the political front: we probably wouldn’t be allowed to try, even if we could. “You’re gong to do what?”
So here we are: too many billions of us (and counting), with a swelling percentage at seismic risk.
Oops.
Not much is a given when studying the earth sciences, but a noteworthy seismic event, affecting tens of millions, is as guaranteed as anything can be.
And it won’t be pretty: rattle an 8.5 (or greater) under Tokyo; the Persian Gulf; the Pacific coast of the United States, from Seattle through San Francisco and the L.A. Basin to the Mexican border; or countless other concentrations of humanity huddling above active plate boundaries, and the social, political, and economic fallout will encircle the globe.
But we can’t all bunk in Kansas with Dorothy and Toto. If you happen to find yourself in earthquake country, either for a short visit or the duration, all you can do is be aware of the risk and prepare as well as possible, hope for the best, and then hang on tight when the music begins.
